Thursday 2 September 2010

Reading through Randomness...

The book begins by discussing the misconceptions that occur when probability is used. The cases are similar to that of the ones used in Reckoning with Risk i.e. false positives and negatives, and so I won't use them.

She then talks about the use of randomness in decision making:
"Chance is a fair way to determine moves in some games and in certain real-life situations; the random element allows each participant to believe, 'I have an oppurtunity equal to that of my opponent.'"

I haven't really thought about the role of randomness is something like decision making. The quote suggests that randomness may be the only unbiased way of making decisions in certain situations.

Bennett then moves onto the randomizers that were used in ancient history.
"Though not always recognized or acknowledged as such, chance mechanisms have been used since antiquity: to divide property, delegate civic responsibilities or privileges, settle disputes among neighbors, choose which strategy to follow in the course of battle, and drive the play in games of chance."

It seems as though randomness has always been around, and people took advantage of its unpredictability to make quick decisions about certain events.
Deborah J. Bennett then talks through the various randomizers that were used in ancient times, many resembling the dice that is used in our time. Chapter three discusses religion and the role of God in the concept of random:

"The purpose of randomizers such as lots or dice was to eliminate the possibility of human manipulation and thereby to give the gods a clear channel through which to express their divine will. Even today, some people see a chance outcome as fate or destiny, that which was 'meant to be'"

This quote coincides with one I found in March: "God does not play dice" - Einstein

Both quotes seem to indicate that random does exist but it is an act of God. Randomness, like many other things in the world that humans do not fully understand, is a concept that we must accept and put faith in because it is a part of God.

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